Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
