Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
